Key Takeaways
- Rolex, Patek Philippe, and AP averaged 20% annual appreciation from 2018–2023, outpacing the S&P 500's 8% average over the same period.
- The pre-owned luxury watch market is projected at $35 billion by 2026 — more institutional money and data transparency are entering the space.
- Risk is real: Rolex steel sport models pulled back 30–50% from March 2022 bubble peaks. The Daytona dropped from $50k+ to mid-$30k.
- Most watches depreciate. Investment-grade pieces are a narrow segment: steel sports models, discontinued references, and limited editions from top-tier brands only.
The luxury watch market has attracted serious attention from investors over the past five years. With the pre-owned market projected at $35 billion by 2026, platforms like WatchCharts and Chrono24 adding index-fund-style tracking, and fractional ownership startups emerging — watches are being treated as a legitimate alternative asset class.
But the internet is full of survivorship bias. You'll hear about the guy who bought a Daytona at retail and sold it for double. You won't hear about the thousands who bought Omega Seamasters or Tag Heuers that lost 30–40% the moment they left the boutique.
Here's what the actual data says — the good, the bad, and the strategy that makes watch investing rational rather than speculative.
The Numbers: How Watches Stack Up Against Stocks
Between 2018 and 2023, select luxury watches outperformed nearly every traditional asset class. The numbers are striking — but context matters.
| Asset Class | Avg Annual Return (2018–2023) | Liquidity | Yield/Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-tier watches (Rolex/Patek/AP) | ~20% | Medium | None |
| S&P 500 | ~8% | High | ~1.5% |
| U.S. Real Estate | ~5–7% | Low | Rental income |
| Gold | ~6% | High | None |
| Bonds (10yr Treasury) | ~2–3% | High | Coupon |
The catch: watches produce no yield. They cost money to insure (~1–2% of value annually) and service ($500–$1,500 every 5–10 years). And the 20% figure is a curated average of the best-performing brands — the broader watch market (including mid-tier brands) actually depreciates.
The real advantage of watches as an investment isn't raw return — it's low correlation to the stock market. When equities crashed in 2020 and 2022, watch prices moved independently. That makes them a genuine portfolio diversification tool, not just a speculative play.
Which Brands Actually Appreciate
Not all luxury watches are investments. Most aren't. Here's the honest tier list based on secondary market performance data.
| Rank | Brand | Typical Secondary Performance | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rolex | Sport models trade at/above retail; highest consistency | Highest |
| 2 | Patek Philippe | +7–10% YTD in 2025 on key collections; Nautilus 5711 at 3x+ retail | Medium |
| 3 | Audemars Piguet | Royal Oak steel above retail; limited production supports premiums | Medium |
| 4 | Vacheron Constantin | Overseas models +10–12% in 2025 (pink gold); emerging investment play | Lower |
| 5 | Richard Mille | Ultra-limited production; trades well above retail but very low volume | Lowest |
| — | Tudor | Holds 80–90% of retail (decent, but no appreciation) | Medium |
| — | Omega | Depreciates 25–40% from retail (not an investment play) | High |
Rolex ranks first primarily because of liquidity. It's the most recognized watch brand on earth, which means you can sell a Rolex faster and closer to market value than anything else. Patek has the highest ceiling but fewer buyers. AP is third — the Royal Oak is its only true investment piece.
Omega and Tudor are excellent watches but not investment vehicles. If you buy an Omega Seamaster at retail for $5,700, expect it to be worth $3,400–$4,200 on the secondary market. That's not a flaw — it just means you're buying a watch, not an asset. For more on Omega's value proposition, see our Rolex vs Omega comparison.
The Best Investment Models Right Now
Within the top-tier brands, specific references drive the returns. Here are the models with the strongest investment cases heading into 2026.
| Model | Retail | Secondary Market | 2025 Performance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Daytona (116500LN) | $15,100 | $28,000–$32,000 | +15–20% |
| Patek Nautilus 5711 (discontinued) | Was ~$35,000 | $100,000–$130,000+ | +7–10% |
| AP Royal Oak 15500ST | ~$24,000 | $35,000–$40,000 | Stable/+5% |
| Rolex Submariner Date (126610LN) | $10,250 | $12,000–$14,000 | +8–12% |
| Vacheron Overseas (pink gold) | ~$38,000 | $42,000–$46,000 | +10–12% |
The pattern is clear: steel sport models from top brands dominate. The Nautilus 5711 is the extreme case — discontinued by Patek after an 8–10 year waitlist, it now sells for 3x+ its original retail price. That's the power of scarcity combined with brand prestige.
The Daytona remains the benchmark for accessible watch investing — available at $15,100 retail (if you can get one from an AD), and consistently trading at nearly double on the secondary market. For guidance on selling at optimal prices, see our guide to selling a Rolex.
The 2022 Bubble and What It Taught Us
Any honest guide to watch investing must address what happened in 2022. Between late 2020 and March 2022, luxury watch prices went parabolic. Stimulus money, crypto wealth, and speculative buying drove prices to unsustainable levels.
Then the correction hit. Rolex steel sport models pulled back 30–50% from their March 2022 peaks. The Daytona dropped from over $50,000 to the mid-$30,000s. The GMT-Master II “Pepsi” fell from $35,000+ to around $20,000. Speculators who bought at the top got burned badly.
The lessons are critical for anyone treating watches as investments:
- Never buy at grey market peaks. If a watch is trading at 3x retail and climbing vertically, you're buying the top, not the bottom.
- Buy at retail whenever possible. Your built-in margin of safety is the retail-to-secondary spread. Overpaying on the grey market eliminates it.
- The market recovered — for top references. Daytona and Nautilus prices stabilised and have been climbing since late 2023. The floor held for truly desirable pieces.
- Speculative models got crushed hardest. Watches that only had investment hype (no genuine collector demand) fell the most and haven't recovered.
For a deeper look at current market dynamics and where prices are heading, see our 2026 luxury watch market trends analysis.
Risk Factors Most Investors Ignore
The watch investment space has a survivorship bias problem. People share wins, not losses. Here's what can go wrong — and how much it costs.
| Risk Factor | Impact on ROI | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Overpaying (grey market premium) | Eliminates ROI entirely | Buy at retail via AD relationship |
| Condition neglect (scratches, no box/papers) | −20–40% at resale | Keep box, papers, service records; insure |
| Transaction costs (dealer sales) | −10–15% of sale price | Sell private party or via low-fee platforms |
| Insurance + servicing | −1–2% annually | Factor into return calculations upfront |
| Market correction (2022-style crash) | −30–50% from peaks | Buy at/near retail; hold through cycles |
| No yield while holding | 0% income | Accept as trade-off for low correlation |
The single biggest mistake is overpaying on the grey market. If you buy a Submariner at $14,000 from a grey dealer when retail is $10,250, you've already paid the premium someone else should be paying you. Your ROI is now starting from a deficit.
Condition neglect is the second killer. A Rolex with a scratched case, missing box, or no service history sells for 20–40% less than the same reference in full-set, mint condition. If you're buying for investment, treat the watch like an asset: keep it insured, serviced, and documented.
How to Build a Watch Investment Strategy
If you're approaching watches as investments (not just enthusiast purchases), here's the framework that maximises your probability of positive returns.
1. Buy at Retail, Not Grey Market
Your margin of safety is the gap between retail price and secondary market value. Build AD relationships. Accept waitlists. The patience to buy at retail is the single biggest edge a watch investor can have. If you pay grey market, you're buying someone else's profit.
2. Focus on Steel Sport Models
Steel sport watches from top brands (Submariner, Daytona, Royal Oak, Nautilus) consistently outperform precious metal dress watches. The demand-to-supply ratio is highest in this segment, and collector interest is broadest. Gold and platinum pieces are harder to sell and have smaller buyer pools.
3. Target Discontinued References
When a brand discontinues a popular model, supply becomes fixed while demand continues growing. The Patek 5711, Rolex “Hulk” Submariner, and AP Royal Oak 15202ST all surged after discontinuation. If you own a model rumoured for discontinuation, consider holding.
4. Diversify Across Brands and Entry Points
Don't put everything into one reference. A balanced watch portfolio might include a Rolex sport model (highest liquidity), a Patek complication (highest ceiling), and a Vacheron or AP (emerging appreciation). Stagger purchases over time to avoid buying at a single market peak.
5. Preserve Condition Ruthlessly
Keep original box, papers, warranty cards, and all purchase documentation. Service on schedule with authorized service centres. Consider a second “daily wear” watch so your investment pieces stay mint. Condition is the difference between a 20% gain and a 20% loss on the same reference.
For budget-friendly options that hold value well, see our guide to the best watches under $5,000 that hold their value.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are luxury watches a good investment?
Select watches from Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet have outperformed the S&P 500 over certain periods, averaging ~20% annual appreciation from 2018–2023. However, most watches depreciate. Investment-grade pieces are a narrow segment: steel sports models, discontinued references, and limited editions from top-tier brands. Treat them as a portfolio diversifier with low stock-market correlation, not a primary investment vehicle.
Which watch brand is the best investment?
Rolex ranks first due to unmatched liquidity — it's the most recognized brand and easiest to sell at fair value. Patek Philippe offers the highest appreciation ceiling (the Nautilus 5711 trades at 3x+ retail). Audemars Piguet is third with the Royal Oak line. Vacheron Constantin and Richard Mille round out the top five.
How much did luxury watches drop after the 2022 bubble?
Rolex steel sport models pulled back 30–50% from March 2022 peaks. The Daytona fell from over $50,000 to the mid-$30,000s. The market has since stabilised with prices gradually recovering through 2024–2025, but anyone who bought at peak bubble prices is still underwater on most references.
What are the risks of investing in watches?
The biggest risks are: overpaying on the grey market (kills ROI before you start), condition neglect reducing value by 20–40%, transaction costs of 10–15% when selling through dealers, no dividends or yield while holding, and market corrections like 2022. Factor in insurance (~1–2% annually) and servicing costs when calculating true returns.
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The Bottom Line
Luxury watches can be good investments — but only a narrow slice of the market actually appreciates. The formula is specific: top-tier brands (Rolex, Patek, AP), steel sport models, bought at or near retail, held in mint condition with full documentation.
If you follow that formula, you get an asset with genuine portfolio diversification benefits, low correlation to stocks, and historical returns that have outpaced the S&P 500 over certain periods. You also get something you can wear and enjoy — which no ETF offers.
If you deviate from the formula — overpay on the grey market, buy mid-tier brands expecting appreciation, neglect condition, or buy at market peaks — you'll likely lose money. The watch market rewards patience, knowledge, and discipline.
Start by knowing exactly what any watch is worth in today's market. That's the foundation of any rational investment decision.
Check Any Watch's Investment Value
Snap a photo of any Rolex, Patek, AP, or other luxury watch. Grailr identifies the exact reference and pulls live market pricing — so you know what it's actually worth before you invest.